Introducing Gemini Pre-issuance Reviews

Today, we’re proud to launch Gemini Pre-Issuance ratings. Gemini is crafted to guide early-stage investors in assessing the potential value of carbon offset projects prior to issuance.

In 2023, much ink was spilt over the quality issues that continue to mar the Voluntary Carbon Market. At Renoster, we found that about 75% of ex-post projects we’ve reviewed had overestimated their performance and were significantly below 1 tCO2e/credit. Having reviewed ~200 projects and ~500M credits, we have a good vantage on the existing marketplace.

In response to this concern, corporates / investors / nature based funds are deciding to move up the supply stream and invest in project developers / projects directly. This brings two distinct advantages:

• Closer Scrutiny: Early investing allows much closer due diligence on project governance, budget, projected climate benefits and allows buyers to influence the project development process. This is in stark contrast to ex-post projects on the market already, where project setup is fixed and risks are less accessible.

• Securing Offtake: Buyers can eliminate the need to acquire credits every offset season by securing a 10-15 year offtake in projects they helped bring to market. This provides certainty over their offset supply. In a market where high quality projects are sparse and highly desired, this is equivalent to having a monopoly over a treasured resource.

Gemini is particularly beneficial for buyers focused on securing offtakes, providing them with the necessary insights to make decisions that will maximize impact and generate the highest quality carbon credits.

Gemini comprehensively spans 3 critical categories: Project Infrastructure, Scientific Analysis, and Co-benefits:

Project Infrastructure includes conditions for project set up, covering People and Organisations, Legality and the Environment, Governance and Budget, which are essential to understanding both current and future project risks.

Scientific Analysis encompasses the criteria we evaluate for post-issuance projects, such as Additionality, Baseline, Leakage, Verification, Permanence, as well as Growth Modelling & Land Management, Monitoring, and Credit Assessment. These core elements are accompanied by forecasting credit issuances based on Renoster’s own models.

Co-benefits include Ecological & Community Benefits and Relevant Case Studies of similar projects that Renoster has reviewed, evaluating their strengths and weaknesses to forecast potential outcomes for the project under assessment.

Renoster’s Pre-Issuance ratings precisely quantify the climate value of a project, identify critical risks for investors, and deliver projections for the project's development. Our approach ensures a robust understanding of the project's benefits and potential challenges.

We have released our extensive Gemini Pre-Issuance Rubric here.